极盗车神
40万亿债务压顶！美债风暴席卷全球 人民币资产能否成为避风港？读懂这背后三大逻辑！_我的网站
A | 尽管美国财政部本周三突然宣布加大长期国债的回购规模，试图以“借短还长”的方式压低长期国债收益率，但效果仅持续了一天，美国30年期国债收益率再度上行至5.249%，逼近前期新高。
美国国债曾被国际资本视为安全级别最高的投资品，各国主权基金争相配置，30年期国债收益率在2020年3月曾到过0.7%。
Editor's Note:
Ahead of the opening of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance, Chinese AI start-up Moonshot AI released its Kimi K3 large language model. As the world's largest open-source model by parameter count to date, this launch marks a significant step forward in the development of China's artificial intelligence models.
From the C919 airliner soaring into the skies to Unitree's humanoid robots stealing the show; from DeepSeek pushing the AI frontier to Moonshot AI's landmark unveiling of Kimi K3 - China's wave of homegrown innovations has dominated global headlines in recent years, delivering a steady stream of breakthroughs.
At a meeting in Beijing that brought together the national science and technology award conference, the general assemblies of the members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), and the 11th national congress of the China Association for Science and Technology in July, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, stressed that the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) is a critical phase for tackling tough challenges in building up the country's strength in science and technology.
"We must seize the historic opportunity, rise to the challenges of the times, accelerate efforts to achieve high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and make steady progress toward the 2035 goal of becoming a leading country in science and technology," he said.
In the article "Strive for Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fourth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi pointed out, "Through years of endeavor, our country's overall strength in science and technology has improved substantially. We therefore have a solid foundation, and are fully confident in our ability to seize the opportunities offered by the new revolution in science, technology and industry to achieve greater results." The article also mentioned that "We should participate to the full in global science and technology governance, contribute Chinese wisdom, and shape a philosophy of technology for good purposes, so that science and technology better serve human wellbeing, and enable China's science and technology industry to contribute more to building a global community of shared future."
In the 27th installment of the special series "Decoding the Book Xi Jinping: The Governance of China," the Global Times, along with the People's Daily Overseas Edition, continues to invite Chinese and foreign scholars, translators of Xi's works, practitioners with firsthand experience, and international readers to focus on the theme of striving for greater strength and self-reliance in science and technology. Together, they share views on China's tech growth, governance principles, and global cooperation in science and technology.
In the 27th article of the "Readers' Reflections" column, Global Times (GT) talked to Francesco Faiola (Faiola), an Italian professor at the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences with Chinese Academy of Sciences and recipient of the Chinese Government Friendship Award.
GT: Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance on July 17. He said that as a responsible major country, China is always committed to providing international public goods relating to AI. In the article "Boost Basic Research and Achieve Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fifth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi said, "It is important that we adopt a more open-minded approach to international exchange and cooperation in research to create an open, globally competitive innovation ecosystem." Amid the current complex global landscape, China remains firmly committed to keeping its doors open to international scientific collaboration. In your view, where does China's confidence in this commitment come from?
Faiola: I think China's confidence in staying open comes from a deep shift in mindset. The Chinese people, especially the scientific community, now really believe they are not inferior to Westerners. For a long time, even many people here thought top science had to happen at a Western address. When I first came, I believed that too. The US and Europe seemed like the only serious places for breakthroughs. Now that idea is changing, and moving toward China, because the evidence of leadership is everywhere: stem cell standards, artificial intelligence (AI) efficiency, green manufacturing. It's undeniable. China knows it has everything needed to attract and keep international talent. It's no longer a developing country playing catch up. It's a place that's helping set the global agenda.
That self-assurance is the bedrock of openness. When you truly believe you have unique strengths, like a huge organoid screening capability or a community of scientists who think deeply, you don't fear open doors. You want colleagues from everywhere to walk through so the science moves faster. My own lab works with European centers as equals. That parity is real. But we also know not everyone abroad gets this transformation yet. A lot of people still imagine Chinese science as just following others. That's exactly why China is pushing openness harder: funding lines for foreign principal investigators, open innovation hubs in Beijing, active participation in setting international standards. These aren't defensive moves. They're proof of a country confident enough to invite the world in, show what it can do, and create knowledge together.
On a deeper level, the confidence is also just rational. The big challenges - environmental problem, pandemic preparedness and precision medicine - are global. If China closed itself off, the data and validation its own regulators need would get weaker. So, the open door isn't charity. It's the smart recognition that scientific greatness today gets multiplied when you share it.
GT: In the article "Strive for Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fourth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi pointed out, "Through years of endeavor, our country's overall strength in science and technology has improved substantially. We therefore have a solid foundation, and are fully confident in our ability to seize the opportunities offered by the new revolution in science, technology and industry to achieve greater results." From the domestically built large passenger jet to DeepSeek, Unitree Robotics, and Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, China's innovation achievements have been making headlines. How do you assess China's achievements in sci-tech innovation in recent years?
Faiola: I measure China's innovation success in a very personal way. My parents are old, living in a small Italian town. They don't speak English. They don't understand molecular biology. They can't read a scientific paper. But over the past few years, they've called me up more than once, excited, telling me about a Chinese airplane or a humanoid robot or some AI breakthrough they saw on Italy's main TV news or in the newspapers.
That tells me something deep. These aren't niche stories for tech insiders. They are real global news, landing in the living rooms of retirees who barely use a smartphone. I'm not bragging to them about China's progress. They are telling me. When achievements get that far into everyday European life, it's a sign China is doing something the world finds worth talking about.
The C919 plane, DeepSeek, Unitree Robotics - these aren't one-off hits. They prove China can now conceive, design, and build complex, original systems on its own, whether it's an airliner, an advanced AI model, or an agile robot. That takes deep integration across different fields, aerodynamics, materials, real time control, and AI.
DeepSeek's whole philosophy, doing more with less, is exactly how we created affordable organoid screening tools. And the quiet shift from rule taker to rule maker in chemical safety standards, that mirrors the C919's ambition to compete globally on certification. All this shows China is blending manufacturing, digital smarts, and biology into one force. But my real proof is what I hear from my students. They don't just apply discoveries from papers anymore. They question the assumptions behind them. That intellectual confidence, and the fact it echoes all the way back to a small Italian town, is why I'm sure China will fully seize this moment.
GT: President Xi said that AI development should not be a solo performance by a single country, but a symphony of international cooperation. Having conducted research in China for many years, you are not only a witness but also a driving force behind China-Europe scientific exchanges. Looking ahead, how can both sides deepen complementary advantages and achieve mutually beneficial empowerment to jointly address global challenges such as climate change and health? Over the next five years, which specific sectors should China-Europe science and technology collaboration prioritize?
Faiola: I grew up in Italy and now I lead a lab in Beijing while working with colleagues all over Europe. So, China-Europe teamwork isn't some abstract idea to me. It's how my week actually looks. The old cliché, European basic research plus Chinese scale and speed, is already outdated. Both sides now generate novel insights. The relationship has to become genuine two-way cocreation.
I see three practical things that would deepen it. First, we need truly joint funding: one grant, one integrated team, maybe a Max Planck group and a Chinese Academy of Sciences group, with a single scientific plan and students who genuinely rotate between the labs. Second, we need to harmonize regulations and ethics for organoid technologies. Europe has advanced thinking on governance. China has manufacturing scale and the drive to get things into clinics. If we co-develop shared quality and ethical standards for organoid testing, we basically set the global benchmark. A liver organoid made in Europe could then be used directly for a toxicity screen in China without repeating all the validation. Third, we need deliberate talent circulation, not a zero-sum competition. Joint PhD programs where a student naturally moves between continents.
The science doesn't care about borders. If we build the shared tools now, China and Europe can show the world a model where shared knowledge beats division.
GT: Recently, some Western media and think tanks are peddling "China Shock 2.0," claiming that China is achieving fast development in high-tech sectors such as renewable energy and AI and relies on foreign markets to absorb its overcapacity, thus reducing the market share of developed countries and sending more serious shock waves to the global economy compared with the era of traditional manufacture industry. What's your comment on this? In your view, does this represent a new pretext for Western protectionism, or is it an unavoidable external misunderstanding amid China's industrial upgrading?
Faiola: I'm a bench scientist, not a political analyst. I stick to what I can see and measure in my own work. So, I'm not going to guess what the media or think tanks intend. I'll just tell you what the facts show me, and from my lab, the "China Shock 2.0" story just doesn't match up.
In my field of stem cell toxicology, the world is desperate for human relevant safety tests to replace animal testing. Tens of thousands of chemicals still don't have proper hazard data. When Chinese labs turn out high throughput organoid platforms at a fraction of the old cost, that's not dumping "overcapacity" into a full market. It's filling a huge shortage. A researcher in Brazil or Kenya suddenly gets access to a toxicity screen that never existed for them before. Demand is skyrocketing, not standing still. Meeting that demand is a service, not a shock.
With AI, it's the same pattern. DeepSeek's efficiency makes it cheaper and easier for biomedical researchers around the world to use these tools. It's helping create new markets, not stealing a fixed pie. Sure, any big shift causes some dislocation. The answer to that is domestic support and transition policies, not blocking technologies that help solve planetary problems.
。美国长期国债收益率走高被视为对该国财政状况的预警，而黄金与美国长债收益率同步走高，更显示美元遭遇了信任危机侵蚀。 美债拉响警报，美国长期国债收益率居高不下，意味着更昂贵的资金成本。
B | 站在全球的角度看，地缘冲突、逆全球化等趋势外加更昂贵的资金成本，意味着全球进入高成本生产时代，在此压力之下，哪个经济体拥有庞大的生产规模和极致的成本控制能力，哪个经济体的货币和资产就处于升值状态。人民币对美元中间价已经升至三年半以来新高，这本身就是先知先觉资金的投票。 与美元面临的信任危机和美元资产泡沫有着完全不同的境况，人民币正在全球贸易结算和外汇储备中占据越来越大的份额，我国10年期国债收益率水平仅为1.68%，A股制造业属性突出且整体估值依然处于低位。 币值的坚挺、估值低企外加政策回旋空间大，决定了A股未来的行情将独立于美债风暴。 全球进入高成本生产时代 本周，美国30年期国债收益率突破5.3%关口，这并非经济上行带来的收益率上行，而是因为美国联邦债务已经抵达40万亿美元的规模，美元信任危机裂痕增大，全球主要央行配置意愿降低，对利率更敏感的私人资本成为主要买方，美国国债必须给出更高的收益率才能吸引资金购买。 美国国债曾被国际资本视为安全级别最高的投资品，各国主权基金的争先配置导致其长期收益率极低，比如在新冠疫情的2020年，美国30年期国债的中标收益率最低仅为1.32%。但上周美国财政部拍卖的30年期美债标得收益率高达5.216%，超过2007年8月中旬次贷爆发前夜时的水平。 一国长期国债收益率的走高被视为该国财政状况的预警。2007年8月中旬，美国次贷危机爆发前夜，美国30年期国债得标收益率达到5.059%。不过，在次贷危机前，美国联邦债务仅有5万亿美元，每年要支付的净利息支出也仅有2380亿元。但经过次贷危机救市和疫情期间大规模的财政投放，目前美国联邦债务已经高达40万亿美元。 目前，美国国债净利息支出已经占据了财政收入的五分之一，利息开支自我驱动赤字的负向循环。
C | 美国赫尔辛基大学的学者奥马斯·马列宁近期表示，当再融资利率持续高于GDP的增速，叠加持续性的基础财政赤字，债务占GDP的比重将自动抬升。
D | 政治博弈导致财政开支难以削减，那就只剩下债务货币化一条路，重新大规模购债压低收益率，但长期的代价是美元购买力被稀释，美元的信任危机加剧。 与此同时，AI资本开支的加剧，也加大了私人企业与美债对资金的竞争性需求。美国财政部一年拍卖国债所募资总额接近12万亿美元，其中包括国债的到期滚续和弥补财政赤字，这就意味着每个月都要吸纳近万亿美元规模的资金。而AI资本开支加剧，科技巨头投放海量的AI基建相关的投资级信用债，它们与美国长期国债在同一个全球长期资本池中竞争投资者的资金，如谷歌今年8月发行的澳洲袋鼠债，合计募资55亿澳元，20年期利率6.98%。 尽管短期来说，美债危机可以被掩盖，但其长期的脆弱性不容忽视。正如奥马斯·马列宁所说，储备货币的身份只能争取时间，却抹不掉基础的算术约束，如今的脆弱点已经彻底转移至公共债务的再融资链条。
人民币资产将成为避风港 全球资金成本抬升、美元贬值带来通胀、地缘冲突所带来的大宗商品价格上升和物流成本上升，同时叠加逆全球化带来的关税成本和隐形合规成本上升，意味着全球进入了高成本生产时代。在全球成本普遍提升的背景下，中国反而体现出全产业链对冲成本的独特优势： 一是完整制造业集群，带来极致的成本控制能力。如在贵州瓮安－福泉的千亿级磷化工产业园，矿山不靠卡车外运矿石，封闭的矿浆管线直接将矿浆输送至园区萃取车间，产业园区铺设数十公里矿浆输送管网，矿产资源就地转化；园区内部企业之间的原料“隔墙供应”，A工厂的副产品就是B工厂的原料，吃干榨尽，耦合共生；园区集中布局大型污水处理系统，危废中转堆场等，每家企业不用再独立建设全套末端处置设施，统一执行总磷的严苛排放值…… 二是统一的大市场，带来规模效应和产品快速迭代升级。今年以来，越来越多外资企业把研发环节放在中国，实现“在中国创新、为全球所用”。商务部统计显示，今年上半年，我国高技术产业实际使用外资1703.3亿元人民币，同比增长33.2%，占全国实际使用外资的42.4%，较去年同期提升12.2个百分点。其中，研发与设计服务、电子及通信设备制造业、计算机及办公设备制造业，实际使用外资分别增长82%、52%、29.2%。
E | 中国的出口贸易由以劳动密集型为主转向新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏、算力硬件等高附加值品类，对成本上涨的敏感度也得以下降。 三是我国贸易流向的多元化也增强了我国经济的韧性。从贸易链接的广度看，我国已经是160多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴。广泛的双向经贸往来，使得资源进口品来源实现分散，降低原材料受制于单一供给方的风险，同时出口市场的多元化，也降低了对欧美市场的单一依赖，支撑了贸易顺差，也提升了人民币资产的吸引力。 当美债及美元资产的脆弱性暴露时，A股短期也会受到情绪的感染，但从中长期来说，中国资产理应独立于这场因为美元信任危机而引发的全球股债汇风暴。
F | 中国庞大的制造产能、创纪录的上万亿美元的货物贸易顺差、极致的成本控制能力和产品迭代能力、统一的国内大市场以及稳定的治理能力等，都是人民币资产被信赖的基础。 东财图解·加点干货
（文章来源：券商中国）。
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